Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Japanese Invasion: Are They Worth the Investment? - by Paul AJ Pelletier.

In the last decade it seems like we have been bombarded with Japanese baseball players and the hype they come with.  We embrace them with a fanfare and with the hope that they will jumpstart our favorite team; but do they deliver the goods? Are they worth the financial investment compared to a player from any other country including the USA?  Here’s some of the evidence and I will let you make the call… Safe or OUT!

While there seems to be a Japanese player is around every park, of the 827 players who started the season in the majors, only 11 were Japanese.  A total of 37 Japanese players have played at least one game in the majors beginning in 1964, but it was 30 years later before Hideo Nomo burst onto the scene capturing rookie of the year and opening the floodgates.  Teams turned their attention overseas to find new talent, praying they could instantly help them.  He was followed by the next big name Hideki Irabu.  Remember him?  Most fans would remember him first for the hype and then “bust”; two terms that sum up most Japanese major players in a nutshell.

There is no one who could argue that Ichiro is not one of the premier hitters in baseball especially from the leadoff position.  A sure fire Hall of Famer when his time comes, but after that, there is a big drop off in terms of proven talent.  Who’s next? Nomo? Maybe Matsui of the Yankees? How about Daisuke? All household names true; but were the financial costs worth it for these teams or could they have invested the money into their developmental program using players from home or other surrounding areas?  Let’s see…

Nomo, while starting his career a house on fire, finished with slightly above average numbers (123 – 109, 4.24 ERA).  Matsui joined the Yankees in 2003 and has been a solid major leaguer with his best season in 2004 where he hit .298 with 31 HR and 108 RBI.  This earned him a 4 year $52 m contract, but in reality did the Yankees get the player they thought they were getting from Japan? In the 4 years prior to joining the Bronx Bombers he had 42, 42, 36, and 50 home runs respectively and hit in the low to mid .300 every year.  He has never come close to matching those totals in the majors.

Matsui is an example of the hype that major league teams buy when they look at the numbers the players put up in their Japanese careers. And Matsui has been one of the better ones!  I mentioned Irabu earlier.  We all heard the hype about his 98 mph fastballs and the 3 years leading to his coming to America, he led the Japanese league in wins, strikeouts, and ERA.  The Yankees traded for his rights from the Padres and signed him to a 4 year, $12.8m contract. He was in the rotation after 8 starts in the minors.  I bought the hype too and tuned in to his first start to see the fireballer perform.  I was amazed to see his fastball struggle to reach 92 or 93 mph and left feeling like we’d been had.  He was finished 6 years later with a record of 34 and 35 with a hefty era of 5.15.  Hefty, another word often associated with Irabu.

The latest sensation and hype machine has been Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox.  Before we can even talk about Daisuke we need to introduce the “posting” process.  In December 1998, MLB signed an agreement with Japanese baseball to facilitate the transfer of players under contract to Japanese teams to the majors.  A player must make his Japanese team aware of the fact that he wants to be posted and, if they agree, his team informs the Commissioner’s office.  There is then a 4 day silent auction for the rights to talk to the player.  That’s right, just to talk to him.  While Daisuke did have good numbers in his career to that point, was he really worth the $51,111,111.11 for his rights and the subsequent 6 year $52m contract when he still had never faced a major league hitter yet?  How many young players could be developed through the farm systems with a $100m+ investment? It is definitely too early to tell, but after a rookie campaign of 15-12 record and an ERA of 4.40, he’ll need to do more over those 6 years to make me say, “Yes” he was worth it.  While he has definitely gotten off to a great start this year, he has also spent time on the DL with a bad shoulder.  I hope for all you Sox fans that you aren’t in a couple of years wanting to chant “I rob u” as the Yankee fans did in the late 90’s.

Since Daisuke’s posting and contract in 2006, there have been two other players signed under the same system.  The same year 2006, Tampa bought the rights to Akinori Iwamura for $4.5m and then a 3 year $7.7m deal.  He was a 6 time gold glover in Japan and started 2007 at 3B for the Rays while batting leadoff.  He ended the season at .285 with 7HR and 34 RBI and a September incident where he had his bats confiscated in a game against the Yankees.  He started 2008 at 2nd after losing his job to All-Star Evan Longoria and continues to put up average numbers this season. 

In 2007, the Yankees bought the rights to Kei Igawa for only $26,000,194 and then signed him to a 5 year contract worth $20m; a sizeable investment for a 29 year old rookie whose fastball is in the 88 – 91 mph range.  In a season and a half with the Yankees he has spent most of his time in the minors.  He posted a highly respectable 86-60 record with a 3.14 ERA in 8 seasons in Japan and has a record in the majors of 2-4 with a 6.25 ERA.  If the fans in New York saw more of this guy I am thinking there would be more chanting!

My question to you is why does the Japanese League allow these players into the posting process in the first place when they know they will have to release their best players?  Is it maybe because they have already got the best 6 to 8 years of their careers while stacking up great stats (against non-American hitters or pitchers) and know that they don’t have much left and are using them to make millions while they still can?  One would think that could very well be.

With all that said about our friends from the Far East, as a Canadian, lets do a quick comparison.  Canada currently has 16 players in the majors.  The list includes former AL MVP and all-star Justin Morneau, all stars Jason Bay and Russell Martin.  On the mound, Canadians include the Cubs Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, last years AL strikeout king Eric Bedard, Jeff Francis, a key to the Rockies run last year, and consecutive saves record holder Eric Gagne.  All guys who paid their dues and earned their money the hard way.  Or another way of creating great players might be to take all that TALK MONEY and invest it in training more Canadians at a younger age.  For me, when it comes to a safe investment, you might call Canadians SAFE! And Japanese OUT!

Written by:  Aj Pelletier

Researched by: Colin Critch, (Statman for North Rock West Group)

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