Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Busts 2007 - by Curt Blakeney.

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Two months into the season, we’re already starting to see some trends. If you drafted one of these underachievers, chances are you’re scrambling for a replacement (or an explanation). If you grabbed two or more of these bums, chances are you’re preparing your draft board for 2008.

Though there are still four months left in the season, let’s take an early look at this season’s biggest fantasy disappointments.

C – Though Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza have been dinged up, the one catcher who has not met expectations is Ramon Hernandez. After finishing with 23 HRs and 91 RBIs, Ramon’s power drought (only 2 HRs and 22 RBIs so far) has got to sting. Right now there is little separating Hernandez from two dozen pedestrian catchers.

1B – Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard owners were singing the blues after the first month. But it looks like Prince Albert and Big Ryan are back swinging a big stick. Adam LaRoche has been a big disappointment for Pittsburgh, and Paul Konerko is off to another cold start. But the biggest disappointment has to be Lance Berkman of Houston. Drafted in the first or second round in many drafts, Berk’s numbers through May 31 (.244 and 5 HRs) have been surpassed by just about every first baseman, including undrafted Dan Johnson and Carlos Pena.

2B – This one is a toss up between Robinson Cano and Felipe Lopez. Cano was supposed to bat .300-plus and add some pop to his game this year. But so far, a .264, 2 HRs and 21 run stat line puts him at the bottom of the second base list. Lopez was supposed to steal 30-plus bases and perhaps get back some of the 20-homer power he flashed in 2005. But so far, 3 dingers and 6 stolen bases are discouraging. My vote: Lopez.

SS – With all the accusations of steroid use, Miguel Tejada has done little to dispel that notion. With only 5 dingers, Tejada looks like a shell of the shortstop who smashed 34 HRs and 150 RBIs in 2004. Though the rest of this numbers are good, Tejada just can’t be considered the premier power shortstop any longer. But the biggest disappointment has to be considered Michael Young of Texas. For a guy who’s accustomed to batting .310-plus and 100-100 in the RBI and run categories, Young has been a failure so far with a .252 average and 4 HRs.

3B – This one is a no brainer: Garrett Atkins hands down. Drafted in the first three rounds in many drafts, Atkins is MIA in 2007. After a superb 2006, that saw Atkins go .329/29/120/117, he has been all but invisible in 2007 with a very mediocre .223/3/20/16 line. Look for Atkins to rebound in the second half, but clearly his final numbers won’t approach his 2006 numbers. Expect somewhere around .280/20/80/80 as final numbers. Runner-up: Ryan Zimmerman

OF – The Yankees dynamic duo of Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon has been anything but dynamic. Abreu, once a lock for 20 homers and 30 SBs, suddenly finds his average down to .228 with only 2 homers. Teammate Damon isn’t faring much better with a .264 BA, 3 homers and only 17 RBIs. In his defense, Damon has been hobbled with enough of a gimp in his step to make Bill Buckner proud. Advantage: Abreu

SPs – If you walked away from your draft with Chris Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano, Mike Mussina, Brett Myers and Rich Harden as your starting rotation, you were probably feeling a little giddy. There was no predicting Carpenter’s elbow surgery, though Harden’s injury was a 50-50 proposition. Zambrano has been atrocious with a 5.24 ERA and 1.49 WHIP – though it looks like he’s finally turning the corner to respectability. Mussina injured his hamstring in April, then got blown up on two starts after his DL stint. His velocity is down, so his control will have to be impeccable to recover. He’s a cagey veteran who should bounce back and post respectable number. Just don’t expect similar numbers to 2006 (15 wins, 3.5 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 172 Ks). Myers went from struggling starter, to fill-in closer, to injured shoulder. I’m sure he would rather forget about the 2007 season altogether. Big loser: Zambrano

Closers – If you drafted BJ Ryan early, there were warning signs this spring that an injury was impending. But injured stars are different than struggling stars, and the biggest disappointment has to be Mariano Rivera. Probably one of the top three closers selected in most drafts, Mo has only 4 saves and an uncharacteristic 5.5 ERA. Though he should recover as the Yankees win more games, that hardly justifies a third-round (or higher) selection.

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