Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball Player Analysis - Part Three - by Evan Cohen.

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Now that we have come just past the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season, it is time to take a look at the pitching side of the game. Many pitchers had high expectations put on them by fantasy baseball owners around this fun game that we play. Some players pitched beyond what we thought they could do. Others didn’t have much luck in the first half. What we will do now is examine some of the good and the bad. Each player will be covered in the five basic fantasy baseball categories for standard scoring systems (wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and saves). Of course, a starting pitcher will not record saves while a win from a closer is an added bonus to your fantasy baseball roster.

The Good:

Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox has been the unquestioned ace for the team this season. Fellow starters Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka have had struggles and Beckett has stepped in and been a stopper for the team. He is tied in wins in baseball with two others with 12. A 3.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP are certainly respectable fantasy baseball stats that have gone a long way in helping keep the Boston Red Sox in the lead in the American League East. Although his 92 K’s are not amongst the league leaders, he still has been able to get the big strikeout when the team needs it. As a full-time starter, Beckett doesn’t have a save, but his team’s bullpen has been saved by his strong first half. Barring an injury to Beckett, who has already seen a stint on the disabled list this season, expect him to finish up with 20 wins and 175-180 K’s. His ERA and WHIP should stay in the same neighborhood the rest of the way.

Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies has emerged as the ace of the team in the City of Brotherly Love. While he pitches in a very hitter friendly park in Philly, he has posted a respectable 3.83 ERA to go with a 1.235 WHIP. Hamels has averaged over one K per nine innings by whiffing 126 in 124 2/3 innings pitched. He also made an appearance in the 2007 All Star Game in San Francisco and has shown in his second year that he will be a big part of the Phillies quest to knock the New York Mets out of first place in the National League East. His 11 wins leads the NL and has a good chance to earn another 7 to 8 more to bring the total up to 18-19 total. Another 100 K’s on the year is not out of the question and his ERA and WHIP could see a bit of a dip as he continues to get better in the second half. Hamels is one of the best young lefty pitchers in the game and should be a force for years to come.

The starting pitcher for this year’s mid-summer classic was the Oakland A’s Dan Haren. With Barry Zito gone to the Giants and Rich Harden battling injuries…again, Haren has become the number one pitcher in the Bay Area. 10 wins on a struggling A’s team earned him All Star consideration, but a 2.30 ERA and 0.997 WHIP got him the start. 101 K’s pace the team, but there is some concern that as the team keeps playing poorly, that it will affect his win total. Haren is good to pick up another 7 wins, but there is nothing to suggest that he can keep up the pace with his outstanding first half totals in the ERA and WHIP department. This is a good time to explore your options in any fantasy baseball leagues that you play in to see what you could get in return via a trade. It is time to sell high on Haren and cash in on his success thus far.

For a guy who had an absolutely miserable second half of the 2006 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers Brad Penny has rebounded to become the top dog in Hollywood. After be the starting pitcher in last season’s All Star Game, Penny spiraled downward in the second half all the way to being left out of the Dodgers starting rotation in the playoffs. A 10 win first half has put behind all the bad blood from 2006 and finds Penny with a 2.39 ERA and 1.91 WHIP to go with his 82 K’s. The strikeout totals are not where you would hope but he has shown that he can put away hitters in other ways. Penny can be looked at much in the same way you can with the A’s Dan Haren above. 7-8 wins are not out of the question for Penny in the second half on a contending squad. Explore trade options with him and see what is out there. One other thing to note with the Dodgers star is that he has from time to time shown too much emotion on the field and in the dugout. He had a couple of incidents last year with teammates and coaches when things didn’t go well. Should he experience a second half tumble, it will certainly hinder your fantasy baseball team’s success.

J.J Putz with the Seattle Mariners has had an unbelievable season so far. He has recorded 26 saves to date and has helped keep a Mariners staff look better because of it. The M’s are in a tight race in the AL West with the Angels in large part because of Putz and the rest of the bullpen. 48 K’s in 43 innings proves that he has evolved into a top-tier fantasy baseball closer and the miniscule ERA and WHIP (0.83 and 0.58 respectively). Add a win out of the pen for him and you have statistically the best closer in the American League. Many experts are skeptical of the Mariners staying around the playoff race, but there is nothing to suggest that Putz can’t record another 20-25 saves on one of baseball’s biggest surprises so far.

The Milwaukee Brewers can thank their lucky stars that Francisco Cordero was included in a trade last year with the Texas Rangers. All Cordero has done is help turn the Brew-Crew into a first place team in the NL Central after countless seasons as a league doormat. In the process of recording 27 saves and an amazing 50 K’s in 35 innings, Cordero has resurrected his career and finds himself atop the leader board in saves around the league. His 2.77 ERA and 1.037 WHIP isn’t eye catching, but it has been good enough to return the city of Milwaukee to baseball respectability. Much like the Seattle Mariners, some experts are not sold on the Brewers being able to maintain their hold on the division even though they are loaded with a lot of young talent. Like Putz, as long as the Brewers play the same type of ball the rest of the way, look for Cordero to grab your fantasy baseball team another 20-25 saves.

The Bad:

One pitcher who had enormous expectations heaped upon him coming into this season is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s Ervin Santana. In the off-season, it was written on FantasyBaseballStarters.com that he was a pitcher to watch for the 2007 season. 5 wins was not what fantasy baseball owners were looking for when they drafted this talented youngster. Couple that with the 10 losses and ERA of 5.97 ERA and Santana is finding himself left out of fantasy baseball starting line ups and even on some leagues waiver wire. Perhaps the most troubling number is a WHIP of 1.538 and his ability to keep runners off the base paths. The most troubling thing with Santana’s season, and career, is his pitching stats at home versus on the road. At home, he is 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA which isn’t bad. On the road it’s a different story, 1-8 with an ERA of 8.59. If you must start him in the second half, closely monitor where he is pitching and pitch him only at home until this problem is corrected.

Barry Zito, a free agent acquisition for the San Francisco Giants, the $126 million dollar man and has pitched like a $1.26 dollar man. The former Cy Young Award winner in the AL with the Oakland A’s has only gotten the team six wins. That’s 21 million dollars a win so far. Factor in the 4.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and you can see why Zito is considered one of the biggest bust’s of the big free agent signings this past year. Zito has just 66 K’s on the year, but his strikeout numbers haven’t been amongst the leaders in the game anyway. If there is a silver lining in all of this, it is that Zito has a 59-27 record and 3.26 ERA in 108 career second half starts with the A’s. Watch him in the second half and see if he can build on the second half success he has displayed so far in his major league career. If things continue like the first half, Zito will not only be a 2007 free agent bust, but a fantasy baseball draft bust as well.

Many fantasy baseball players looked at the 2006 season of Cincinnati Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo and drafted him high. Back to back 14 win season gave us reason to think that he would approach that same win total. However, all you have to show for your pick is three wins and an ERA of 4.78. Perhaps a decent WHIP would allow you to justify using Arroyo in your line up? Wrong again! His WHIP is 1.446. All told, Arroyo and the Reds are having a lousy season. 78 K’s in 118 IP’s is not even helping your cause. What’s even more amazing is that his teammate, Aaron Harang has posted 10 wins on a miserable Reds team with one of the worst records in the game. Unless Cincy turns it around and makes a second half push, which in unlikely because they are believed to be trading off their top players with any trade value, Arroyo can’t be counted on as a viable fantasy baseball pitcher.

When you talk about some of the great players to ever play the game of baseball at the pitcher position, you have to put 4 time Cy Young Award winner Greg Maddux in the conversation. 15 straight seasons with 15 or more wins from 1988 to 2004 and countless Gold Glove Awards proves he is a Hall of Fame pitcher. This year, his first in San Diego with the Padres has not been your typical “Greg Maddux” year. He has seven wins for the first place Padres, but his ERA (4.35) is high for a guy who pitches in pitcher friendly Petco Park. Maddux’s WHIP is at 1.311, which is higher then his career 1.140 number. Just because Maddux is one of the smartest pitchers in baseball and the fact he plays for a contender, I expect his wins to double and ERA and WHIP to come down a bit. Maddux has never been a high strikeout guy throughout his career and his 2007 numbers (60 K’s through 113 IP) are right along with his normal pace.

Mariano Rivera, the New York Yankees rock solid closer for the last decade, has had a down year due to many different factors. Some believe his skills are starting to decline, which could be a contributing factor. But really, he just hasn’t had as many save chances pitching for a disappointing Yankees squad as he has in years gone by. The Yankees have just gone over .500 for the first time in almost a month. His 3.50 ERA and 1.083 WHIP are a little higher than his career stats suggest he should have. With just 12 saves so far, he has not lived up to fantasy baseball leaguers’ expectations. While some fantasy baseball web sites might project him to get 10-12 more saves this season, it is more likely he can pick up another 20, which would put him in the 30’s, which he has reached every year but one since he became the Yankees full-time closer in 1997. 36 K’s in 36 IP is actually better then his K/9 IP for his career.

The closer’s job in fantasy baseball is the most volatile position in the entire game. Many teams have gone through a number of pitchers at that spot due to injuries, inconsistency, trades or whatever. It is strongly recommended that no matter what closer you have on your fantasy baseball roster, you get his set up guy whenever roster size allows.

The second half of the season is now upon us and it appears as if it will be as unpredictable as the first half. Good luck, do whatever it takes to win your fantasy baseball league within reason and most importantly…have fun!

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