Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball Player Analysis - Part Two - by Evan Cohen.

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Now that more of the Major League Baseball season has been played, it is time to do part two of our fantasy baseball player analysis. Last time we covered the infielders that were doing well and those that were not. This time, it is time to look at the fantasy baseball outfielders and designated hitters that are playing well and those who are struggling. After each player, we will let you know if you can expect the players to continue the way they are playing or have a change in their fantasy baseball stats. The fantasy baseball scoring system we will use to grade these players is the basic 5 x 5 fantasy baseball scoring format.

Five Outfielders Who are Hot

One guy that has surprised all of baseball is Texas Rangers OF/ DH, Sammy Sosa. On fantasy baseball starters.com back in February, I wrote that I did not believe Sosa would be a serviceable player, let alone fantasy baseball player. However, the fantasy baseball stats are what they pretty decent. I am still not sold on him being able to keep producing at this pace. Right now, Sosa is hitting .265 with nine homers and 35 RBI’s. Throw in 18 runs scored and you get nice production. Sosa has not stolen a base yet, and likely will only get one or two this season. I expect that Sosa will continue to hit around .260-. 265 and finish up with 20 home runs and drive in 65-70 runs and score in the neighborhood of 60 runs. That is nice production, but not good enough as your number one or two fantasy baseball outfielders.

Next on the list is Detroit Tigers right fielder, Magglio Ordonez. Mags finally looks like he is all the way recovered from injuries he has suffered when playing for the Chicago White Sox in the early part of this decade. While he posted nice numbers last year (82 24 104 1 .298), it just never looked right to me. Now, he has help in the line up from a red-hot Gary Sheffield and Carlos Guillen. His fantasy baseball stats so far are .344 with nine bombs, 38 RBI’s and 36 runs scored. He too has no steals on the season. I think that his numbers will pass what he did last season by a pretty good margin.

One of the nicest stories in baseball right now is the emergence of Houston Astros OF Hunter Pence. This kid spent last year playing in Double A Corpus Christi and got some more experience in the Arizona Fall League. Due to the Astros getting very little outfield production outside of Carlos Lee, they gave Pence a chance and he has made the most of it. His power numbers, four home runs, is not that eye popping, but the .346 is what is keeping him in the team’s line up. Pence also has driven in 16 runs and scored 11. Throw is two SB’s in 81 at bats and you have the makings of a nice season when you project out. I am not expecting him to continue to hit in the mid-300’s, but around .300 may be realistic. 25 HR’s with 90 RBI’s and 80 runs scored are what you can expect.

The best story in baseball so far has been the return to baseball of Cincinnati Reds OF Josh Hamilton. He had battled a heroin addiction and was out of baseball for a couple years. He was originally drafted No. 1 overall by Tampa Bay in 1999. The Reds took a shot with Hamilton and have been rewarded for their efforts. Until his recent trip to the disabled list for gastroenteritis, Josh was hitting .261 with eight homers and 18 RBI’s and 20 runs scored. He has also swiped three bags. Hamilton has five tool potential and was on pace to have a nice season. If he stays away from the demons of his past, he should have a nice career and would absolutely be worth holding onto in fantasy baseball keeper leagues.

Gary Matthews, Jr. of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim has shown so far that his breakout season of 2006 was not a fluke. Matthews’ name showed up on an Internet list as being a customer of an online pharmacy as receiving human growth hormone. The fantasy baseball statistics so far have been good at the top of the Angels line up, .294 with six home runs, 23 RBI’s and 30 runs along with seven steals. In my opinion, unless the halos add another bat to their team, there are rumors that the New York Yankees Jason Giambi could be headed there, I think team’s will figure out a way to keep him off base. There will be less chance for Vladimir Guerrero to cause the havoc that has involved Matthews.

Five Outfielders who are not

The New York Yankees and fantasy baseball owners are not impressed by the slow start of Bobby Abreu. A .224 average with just two home runs is what is really causing alarm to fantasy baseball owners. His 22 RBI’s and 29 runs to go with six steals aren’t exactly what everyone expected either. Yankees manager, Joe Torre, has tried Abreu in multiple spots in the Yankees line up and has gotten the same results. Abreu is too good of a hitter for his average not to rise at some point. I am not certain though that his power numbers will get a whole lot better, but the runs and RBI’s will get better. And one other note, Abreu is known as a second half player. Be patient with Abreu and you will be rewarded.

One player who has done the complete opposite of what I was expecting is the Atlanta Braves Andruw Jones. Jones is in a contract year and should get a nice payday from some team that needs a multiple time Gold Glove winning CF. Most people believe that Jones would have one of his better seasons, but he has been a colossal letdown. Six homers with 30 RBI’s and 21 runs are not what fantasy baseball owners should have expected. To make matters worse, his .212 average and one steal are also killing teams. While Jones is not a guy who will hit .300, he should be able to get out of the funk that saw him whiff five times against the Boston Red Sox in a recent game. All the other numbers will be typical “Downtown” numbers.

Manny Ramirez of the Boston Red Sox has also been a guy that has produced to expectations. Man-Ram is hitting a meager .244 with six long balls and 25 runs knocked in. Manny has also scored just 21 runs and has yet to steal a base. Ramirez has gotten off to slow starts in the past and still finds a way to hit .300 plus with 35-40 HR’s and 110 RBI’s. If you have him on your roster, wait for the inevitable offensive explosion that will come sometime around mid-June. After all, it’s just Manny being Manny.

Even though the Milwaukee Brewers are off to a great start and are getting outstanding offensive production from most of their stars, they are not getting it from a guy who was a break through fantasy baseball player last season. Newly converted OF Bill Hall is off to a slow start. Hall has just six homers to go with one steal and a .268 average. He has driven home 19 players and scored 23 times. While Hall is not going to hit .300, he should start being the recipient of some good pitches as the opposing teams start to try and avoid guys like SS J.J. Hardy and 1B Prince Fielder. Look for Hall to get to the upper-20’s in home runs, but not hit the 35 he did last year. Hall also helps you out if your outfield is loaded as he qualifies as a SS and 3B in some leagues along with the OF.

The Chicago Cubs spent a lot of money this off-season to improve their club. $ 136 million of it is being committed to Alfonso Soriano. Fonzie got off to a slow start by 5x5 standards with a .288 average and just four homers and six steals. Throw in only nine RBI’s and 24 runs and you are not getting what you paid for. Soriano battled some leg injuries and missed a week earlier. One thing to note is that once the month of May rolled around, he began to do some of the things that made him a top five pick in your fantasy baseball drafts. Once the wind begins to blow out at Wrigley Field, his power numbers should creep back up to about 30. A 40-40 (home runs and steals) season is not likely due to the slow start and could be further hurt by his possibly dropping down in the line up in Chicago.

Designated Hitters

The premiere DH in baseball, in my opinion, is David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox. As a Yankees fan, it pains me to say that by the way. Big Papi has become one of the most feared hitters in the game, especially when the game is on the line. While Papi has only 9 homers, he has driven in 36 and scored 30 of his own runs. If you are playing Ortiz for steals, you are getting robbed because he has yet to steal a bag and has just six in his whole career. Add to that a .314 average and you get one dangerous guy. At some point, opposing pitchers will have to start pitching to him as Manny Ramirez begins to heat up and that will make for a lot of long nights and an increase in his fantasy baseball statistics.

As a Yankees fan, I have not only been disappointed in Bobby Abreu, but Jason Giambi has been under-producing as well. Six long balls and 19 RBI’s are not top-notch fantasy baseball numbers that will help your team. Like Ortiz, Giambi has yet to steal a base and the 17 runs and .272 average are below what you would want from Giambi. Now that he has opened his mouth about past steroid use in baseball and some trade rumors swirling, I am not anticipating things to get much better for this one time AL MVP.

Next time, we will take a look at the pitchers and how they are doing so far in this 2007 season. There are many players that are having great fantasy baseball stats and there are guys who are not playing well that I expected to have a big season. Until then, keep checking back to fantasy baseball starters.com for all the great information that is provided.

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