Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

Fantasy Baseball Player Analysis - Part One - by Evan Cohen.

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The fantasy baseball season is now in full swing and there has been a little bit of everything thus far. We’ve seen your fantasy baseball line ups decimated by injuries and weather related cancellations of numerous games. Players have gotten off to slow starts and others have exploded to the point where they are setting records for the month of April. Right now, we will take the time to look at one player from each infield position that is off to a slow start and one who is posting great fantasy baseball stats for their position and tell you if you should expect those guys to continue the way they are performing. The fantasy baseball scoring system we will use to grade these players is the basic 5 x 5 fantasy baseball scoring format.

First Base

Surprisingly, the best all-around fantasy baseball first basemen is not one of the big name guys like St. Louis’ Albert Pujols or the Chicago Cubs Derrick Lee. It’s a guy who plays on the left coast in Petco Park, Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres. Gonzalez is tied for the league lead in homers with five. He also is tied with the most RBI’s with 17. His .304 AVG. is sixth best among fantasy first basemen with 60 or more at bats. His nine runs are ninth but he is only three away from being in second place on the list. First base is not usually a position that steals bases so we will leave that out. I expect Gonzalez to keep on pace with the fantasy baseball statistics he is posting, but expect the stud players mentioned above to ultimately catch or pass him overall.

My most disappointing guy at this position has to be the New York Mets Carlos Delgado. He ranks tenth in runs with nine. He has driven in 12, which ties him for fourth, but there are four guys with the same number. The .216 average barely puts him in the top 40 at his position and the one home run so far is the biggest fantasy baseball stat that has a lot of owner’s wondering if they should stick with him in their fantasy baseball line up. Have no fear, Delgado will still score 80-85 runs, pop 30 homers and drive in 100 guys, so be a little more patient. The Mets line up is too good for him not to eventually start producing.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler, from the Texas Rangers, has started to show some of the potential expected of him last season when he was injured early on. He has been a nice surprise to fantasy owners by hitting .333 with seven homers and 16 RBI’s. The latter two stats lead the position. His three steals are tied for fourth among his spot and has scored 14 runs which is good for a tie for third. Keep Kinsler in your line up as long as he is healthy because Texas still has some very potent bats in the line up and he should continue to produce accordingly with what he is doing so far.

Chase Utley, the Philadelphia Phillies All-Star second basemen, is off to a slow start by his standards. While his four homers, 13 RBI’s and 14 runs are solid, it’s the one stolen base and .246 AVG. that might have a lot of the owners concerned. I say don’t worry, Utley will start to steal some more bases and improve his batting average. Expect him to hit about .290 and swipe 25 bags by the time the year is over. The Phillies as a team are starting to come around after a slow start and this should increase all of their production.

Third Base

Unless you have been on another planet or oblivious to the game of fantasy baseball, you are aware that New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriquez is on pace for a record setting month of April. A-Rod has 14 home runs, which ties the record for the month of April. The 34 runs batted in are the most of the position and also close to setting for a record. His 26 runs is the most in the league and his .400 AVG. is tops as well. There is zero chance that A-Rod will continue to produce these numbers. Just to show how impossible it is, he is projected to score 234 runs, hit 126 homers, 306 RBI’s, nine steals and a .400 AVG. This is simply not going to happen.

The Colorado Rockies Garrett Atkins is off to a slow start compared to what was expected of him. The first few weeks total of .277 with two home runs, 10 runs scored, one steal and nine RBI’s are not fantasy baseball stats that make you say, “I have to get this guy in my line up!” The entire Rockies team has not produced how they were expected to up to this point. You can look at this two ways, the team, which plays in Coors Field will all start to do what was expected or they will continue to struggle as a group and Atkins will not be a worthy starting third basemen. My thoughts are he will fall somewhere in between, he will pick up his numbers, but the team might struggle.

Shortstop

Jose Reyes, who patrols one half of the left side for the New York Mets, was supposed to have a great season. He was selected in the top five of just about every draft I saw or participated in and has not disappointed. The .350 AVG. is second among regular shortstops behind the Florida Marlins Hanley Ramirez. The 21 runs are good for a tie with Ramirez as well. He has knocked two homers, which is about right for this point in the season. The 12 steals are six more then Ramirez, but it’s the 16 RBI’s that lead the league at this position that are amazing. It is a complete surprise that he has driven in so many runs to this point. I do not think the ribby’s will keep up, but all the other fantasy baseball stats, save the average, should stay steady.

Free agent signing, Julio Lugo, of the Boston Red Sox has to be considered a fantasy baseball disappointment so far. His .246 AVG. is about 30 points below his career average. He only has swiped four bags and scored 11 runs. No home runs and just five RBI’s round out the fantasy baseball stats so far. The reason for the lack of the lead-off hitter production that the Sox expected is simple. He is not getting on base like a lead-off guy should. If he can’t get on base, then he score runs or steal bases and set the table for sluggers David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. With the pressure of playing in Boston, if he doesn’t begin to produce, expect him to get dropped in the line up and diminish his fantasy baseball value.

Catcher

Russell Martin of the Los Angeles Dodgers is off to a great start. He literally plays everyday and has even been compared to a young Johnny Bench. Those are very lofty comparisons. His .311 is seventh on the list of regulars. He has only two homers, but his walk-off grand slam in extra innings against Pittsburgh recently was a most timely hit. The 14 runs scored are good for second and his four steals are tops. You have to remember, the catcher is not depended on for stealing a lot of bases. He is on pace to steal 34, but that is unrealistic based on the wear and tear the position can have over the course of playing virtually everyday. As long as Martin stays healthy, he should end up posting top three fantasy baseball catcher statistics.

The New York Mets Paul LoDuca is another Met not producing how he should considering the firepower in the Mets line up. LoDuca is in a contract season, which generally means the guy will post decent statistics to help him get a good payday. LoDuca is not a power hitter so his one homer is not a killer. The .241 AVG. is 48 points below his career average. RBI-wise, his six is just about on pace to drive in his career average of about 62 per season over the last three years. As far as his run scoring, his seven is also just about what he has done the previous three season. The zero steals should come as no surprise. Also, he has had had constant issues with the New York media about his personal life which may have contributed to his decline. I can’t recommend using LoDuca for the whole season unless he begins to exceed his current pace. Check your waiver wires and try to acquire a better catcher.

The next time I check in, there will be an analysis of the outfielders and designated hitters. Since each team plays three guys we will do five players that are off to good starts and five who aren’t and whether they will keep up what they are doing. Check back with fantasy baseball starters.com soon for that article and the breakdown on pitchers coming soon.

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