Word to the Winners - Fantasy Baseball Advice

2007 American League Pitchers - by Evan Cohen.

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The fantasy baseball season is right around the corner and it is time to start thinking about what baseball players you want to be a part of a potential championship squad. As part of a continuing series, we will tell you which players you are going to want to evaluate as you plot out your fantasy baseball draft strategy. In this first part, we will look at pitching. In particular, fantasy baseball strategies for American League pitchers. Because pitching breaks down into three different areas, starters, middle relief and closers, we will look at starting pitching in the American League here. Within the analysis of fantasy baseball info for American League pitchers, we will tell you which guys you want to have, who to watch, ones to stay away from and one guy who could land in any one of these categories. As a tool for how to determine which player you are looking at, we’ll use numbers from the five basic fantasy pitching categories (wins, saves, earned run averages, strikeouts and WHIP, which is a formula of walks added to hits divided by total innings pitched) over the last three seasons. These fantasy baseball statistics will help you to select the best American League fantasy baseball pitchers.

The first player American League pitcher we’re going to analyze is two-time Cy Young Award winner, lefty Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins. He is the one and only guaranteed first round pick, regardless of how large or small your fantasy baseball league is as you get ready to draft. During the last three seasons (2004-2006), the native of Venezuela has two Cy Young’s to go along with 55 wins, a 2.75 ERA, 748 K’s and a WHIP of 0.96. Santana has zero saves, as those are more common among middle relievers and closers. Of the ten fantasy pitchers being used for this article, Santana is tops in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP. Twins teammate, Francisco Liriano, has a .001 advantage in ERA, but Santana has pitched in roughly 548 more innings. Liriano also has the only save in the group. Mix in an opponents .206 batting average and 101 games started in those three seasons and it all adds to the number one guy to have in your fantasy baseball rotation.

The next player makes him season home north of the border up in Toronto playing for the Blue Jays. Roy Halladay, a right-hander who also has a 2003 Cy Young Award to his credit, doesn’t have the gaudy numbers like Johan Santana mainly because he doesn’t play on a contender in Toronto. Even though the numbers may not be as good as other guys, you have to consider situations, which is why Halladay fits in the must have pitchers list. 36 wins, a 3.24 ERA to go with 335 K’s and a 1.12 WHIP are outstanding stats for a baseball player who doesn’t pitch for a great team year in and year out. With a pitcher like Halladay, he gives you a chance to win. In fantasy baseball leagues that give extra points for complete games, Hallady is a stud w/ 10 complete games in 72 games over the last three seasons. The guy just gives you a chance to win every time.

The last guy to land on the must-have pitchers list for the American League is young southpaw Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Anyone that follows baseball knows that the D-Rays are a doormat in the American League East, but this young stud in the making has shown that even on a bad team, you can still post solid fantasy baseball numbers. These are the stats on Kazmir pitching for a team in Tampa that has won just 194 games in the three season span: 22 wins, 3.73 ERA, 378 whiffs and a WHIP of 1.40. Kazmir has been a victim of poor run support and has also had injury issues, but when he is out on the hill, he produces good fantasy baseball stats.
The next group is the biggest and most intriguing of the guys on the American League pitchers list. Player number one is 23 year-old right handed flame thrower for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Ervin Santana. The second year starter in Southern California emerged as the unofficial ace of the Angels staff when last year’s Cy Young winner, Bartolo Colon battled injuries all year. A total of his two-year career shows 28 victories, an ERA that is a bit disturbing at 4.42, 240 K’s and a 1.29 WHIP. While some of those numbers may look higher than you would care for, consider that the typical ERA in the American League is about one full run higher than the National League. Therefore, the numbers are within an acceptable range, but you still want to see if Santana can continue to develop. Santana, no relation to the Twins Johan, is a pitcher you should consider as a middle round pick in your fantasy baseball drafts.

American League Rookie of the Year winner, Justin Verlander, of the defending American League Champion Detroit Tigers falls onto our list next. Like Ervin Santana, Verlander really propelled himself into his team’s rotation in his second season in the bigs. You might be asking yourself why a second year guy qualifies for the ROY. The young righty, Verlander, didn’t meet the minimum requirements to be considered a rookie in 2005, so his eligibility rolled over to 2006. For his young career, Verlander has 17 wins, an ERA of 3.83, 131 K’s and a WHIP OF 1.35. Like Santana, not outstanding fantasy stats, but they are worth monitoring in the middle rounds of your draft. There are two factors, one positive and negative, when considering Verlander. The upside is that he pitches in one of the best hitters parks in baseball at Comerica in the Motor City. The negative is that younger guys hit a little bit of a lull in their second full seasonsOne of the more exciting possibilities is a pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. Felix Hernandez, another second year right-hander in 2006, has been one of the most victimized pitchers by playing for a poor team. The career totals for this 20 year-old ace in the making are 16 wins, 3.96 ERA, a whooping 253 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.23. The same concerns that come with Santana and Verlander apply to Hernandez as well, like being younger guys, but Felix has an added pressure thrust on him. Seattle is looking for Hernandez to be the man now, not in the future. Be weary of Hernandez this season as he will turn just 21 on April 8th. If he is still available in the middle to late draft rounds and you don’t need him to be your team’s number one or two starting pitcher, take the chance.

Josh Beckett, a five year right-handed pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, is up. This 2003 World Series MVP has battled numerous injuries in his career, including more blister problems on his pitching hand than we can count. Along with the MVP and pitching in one of the toughest cities in the country, Beckett has posted 40 wins, a 4.12 ERA, along with 476 K’s and a WHIP of 1.24. In fairness to Beckett, he has split the last three seasons in two very different major league ballparks. 2004 and 2005 saw him pitch for the Marlins in Florida and 2006 was his first campaign in Boston. Pro Player Stadium in Miami is an extremely pitcher friendly park, while Fenway up in the New England area is better suited for hitters. You want to watch Beckett’s alarming numbers in bean town;16-11 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP coupled with the expectations of becoming the number one starter in Boston this season or next as Curt Schilling heads toward retirement. If you want to take the chance on Beckett any earlier then the 5th round of your fantasy baseball draft, consider yourself warned.

At this point, we are getting to a couple of with the potential to be unquestioned aces for their teams, but due to a few different reasons, they may not be worth the early risk or any risk at all. First, we will discuss future Hall of Fame left-handed pitcher, Randy Johnson. “The Big Unit,” currently a member of the New York Yankees, is nearing 300 career wins and sits in the top three of career strikeouts and five Cy Young Awards. His three season numbers of 50 wins, 3.73 ERA, 673 K’s and 1.08 WHIP are n doubt some of the best in baseball. With the fantasy baseball advice for American League pitchers, it is best to look past the pure stats in some cases. This would be one of them. Johnson is 43 years old, which is nearing the age in baseball where a guy should be considering calling it a career. On top of the age factor, Johnson just had off-season back surgery for the second time in his storied career. This injury, along with a knee condition of bone on bone, should be enough to delay you from drafting the Yankees hurler until at least the 9th round, depending on your league size.

The second pitcher from the Minnesota Twins pitching staff is LHP Francisco Liriano, who was cruising along to AL Rookie of the Year honors when he began to suffer from left arm troubles. Like Verlander, he had not pitched enough in 2005 to lose his rookie eligibility. In 2006, Liriano was 12-3 (13-5 total). His career ERA is 2.74 with 177 strikeouts and a 1.01 WHIP. In a start in September, Liriano fired a pitch and walked off the mound in pain. It was later determined that he would need the infamous “Tommy John” surgery, named for the old Yankees pitcher. Recovery time is about one year, but many players try to return earlier and don’t get favorable results. While Liriano is still young, the toll taken on his arm should at the very least make him an undrafted guy in most fantasy leagues. Watch another owner take the risk for this season. If you do participate in fantasy baseball keeper leagues, it might be a good idea to take a late round flyer on him for the following season.

Finally, we get to the one guy who could find his way into any of the above groups. Free agent lefty Barry Zito, formerly of the Oakland A’s, is one player who is most likely to end up in a larger market (New York or Los Angeles). If he falls there, that makes him a must have. Should the 2002 Cy Young winner from the AL land in another city, like a Chicago, he will make the watch list. And if he has a complete brain cramp and heads to a smaller market squad or an also ran like a Kansas City or Tampa Bay, take a LATE chance on him. Regardless of his new home, 41 wins, a 4.05 ERA, 485 whiffs and 1.33 ERA will make him a guy who deserves a place on your roster. Check back later for updated information regarding fantasy baseball advice for American League pitchers to find out where Zito ranks on the list.

There are many more players you can look at when evaluating pitchers for your fantasy baseball team. The players that we’ve mentioned are just a sampling of what type of numbers you want to use to evaluate when making your fantasy draft picks. Later, we will provide you with more fantasy baseball tips for American League pitchers that make their livings out of the bullpen. Until then, do you homework and watch the newswire and you will already have a good draft strategy and a leg up on the competition.

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